Towards the use of meteorological ensembles for short distance dispersion of radionuclides in case of an accidental release in the atmosphere - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Toulouse INP Accéder directement au contenu
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2022

Towards the use of meteorological ensembles for short distance dispersion of radionuclides in case of an accidental release in the atmosphere

Résumé

Numerical models of atmospheric dispersion are used for predicting the health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents, in order to anticipate the countermeasures necessary to protect the populations. However, the simulations of these models suffer from significant uncertainties, arising in particular from input data: weather conditions and source term. To characterize weather uncertainties, it is essential to combine a well-known source term data and meteorological ensembles to generate ensemble dispersion simulations which has the potential to produce different possible scenarios of radionuclides dispersion during emergency situations. In this study, the fine-scale operational weather ensemble AROME-EPS from Météo-France is coupled to the Gaussian puff model pX developed by the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN). The source term data is provided by Orano La Hague reprocessing plant (RP) that regularly discharges 85Kr during the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing process. Then, to evaluate the dispersion results, a continuous measurement campaign of 85Kr air concentration was recently conducted by the Laboratory of Radioecology in Cherbourg (LRC) of IRSN, around RP in the North-Cotentin peninsula. This work investigates the meteorological uncertainties in dispersion simulations at local and medium distances (2-20km). The probabilistic performance of the dispersion ensemble simulations was evaluated using two probabilistic scores: Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Peirce Skill Score (PSS). The results highlight the added value of ensemble forecasts compared to a single deterministic one, and their potential interest in the decision process during crisis situations.
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Dates et versions

irsn-04145608 , version 1 (29-06-2023)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : irsn-04145608 , version 1

Citer

Youness El-Ouartassy, Irène Korsakissok, Matthieu Plu, Laurent Descamps, Olivier Connan, et al.. Towards the use of meteorological ensembles for short distance dispersion of radionuclides in case of an accidental release in the atmosphere. HARMO2022 - 21st International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Sep 2022, Aveiro (Portugal), Portugal. pp.185541. ⟨irsn-04145608⟩
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